Two small points about what I heard Michael O’Leary say and not say yesterday.
What he did say was that we are too slow in making our decisions. He has a point. Whether it’s extending the runway at Sydenham, building a national sports stadium at Lisburn, finding a replacement for the 11-Plus, introducing the Education and Skills Authority, Water Charges, or the Reform of Public Administration, we are too slow, process-driven and risk-averse.
Every time the devolved government is faced with a major decision, the big beasts of the Executive seem to baulk. I know making a decision about a black and white issue like extending the Belfast City runway runs the risk of alienating one group or another. But the greater risk is in not making a decision at all, thus alienating both camps. The key word is delivery.
And delivery is the key word I did not hear from Mr O’Leary. Lets say the airport extends its runway, as he wishes. What guarantee has he offered that he will stick with the City Airport? As I understand the Ryanair MO, the moment they sense they can sweat an extra euro from moving their fleet to another airport, they’re off! So, how many flights over how many years did Mr O’Leary promise if he got his way and the airport invested in the runway extension?
Surely we have learnt our lesson from the numerous inward investors to Northern Ireland over the years, who were happy to take the grants, open the factories, and then disappear at the first whiff of a cheaper option abroad.
Mr. O’Leary is a shrewd business man, looking after his own interests. You are correct, we have indeed taken far too long over extending the runway. Ryanair was promised one within a very short time, and we still have not had the Planning Permission established! It will be five more years, even if permission is granted, before the runway actually is extended. There is already a lot of discontent over the existence of the airport at all by local residents. Increased flights will make living in the Newtownards road almost unbearable! – O’Leary has not said anything about length of tenure, why should he? In any case, all that is, or should be, covered in the negotiations and secured in a final contract. What he did say was that Ryanair will most probably come back as soon as the runway is extended, and that he will at least double the numbers of flights per day. In any case, it seems there are plenty of other airlines eager to use George Best airport. Lets see how the new search pans out!
> So, how many flights over how many years did Mr O’Leary promise if he got his way and the airport invested in the runway extension?
Given the planning restriction on the total number of flight movements at the airport, while there’s room for some growth – say an extra 5-10 takeoffs a day – any increase would more likely be in terms of passenger numbers, selling more seats for existing flights, and converting some of the regional destinations into longer European flights that they could charge more for.
In the world of supply and demand, doesn’t the airport have to offer the facilities AND lucrative enough commercials to attract Ryanair (or other operators) rather than making Ryanair promise to stick around. The airline business has no more loyalty than the political business!
Ryanair was a prime candidate to make use of an extended runway, but by no means the only one. Jet2 or First Choice could move some flights down to the city too …
Alan,
I agree with your economic theory, but all Michael O’Leary seems to say is “If you don’t give me what I want, I’m off”. What I have not heard tested is “If you give me what want, I’ll stay”.
Beyond that, there are two criteria (i) the environmental impact, especially on residents and (ii) whether the economic impact of expansion at Belfast City impacts negatively on BElfast International’s contribution to NI plc
Best wishes
M
But while the two airports have different owners and are run in competition with each other – rather than being run in cooperation with each other and in competition with Dublin Airport – Ryanair (and other carriers) will continue to trade one off against the other and flit around when necessary.
Kill the BIA/BCA competition and you promptly reduce the pressure on BCA’s need to accommodate further-flung destinations and the push to lift maximum passenger numbers. There’d probably be room to reduce the number of flight movements, and the environmental impact would reduce.
However, so too might the competitive pricing of NI flights …
Gentlemen,
On a purely selfish angle, I was particularly concerned at the action of Ryanair, as I use one of their routes to travel from England to my home in North Down on a regular basis.
The point about the ability to make decisions is a key one. One line of argument suggests that all big decisions that have faced the Stormont Executive from the Maze stadium to the Education Transfer test has been mired in tactics to avoid, delay and fudge. But the planning process (and I make this comment as a lawyer) is a statutory function which is supposed to let all interests have a say before coming to a reasoned view based on material planning considerations. I do wonder how much it can be `bounced’ by Ryanair getting upset ?
There has been a strong campaign from residents not only in East Belfast but also in the Holywood (and Cultra) area against the runway extension. There is also a question about the City airport just being used for domestic routes. (I seem to recall it used to only serve UK and Ireland routes and not European ones – why does it need European routes as well ?).
Whilst I get used to my long trips to Aldergrove, we shall have to see how the airport situation works out and whether Stormont ministers are capable of taking decisions, that some would say, they are paid to do!
The point that Mike makes about grants and support is a very good one too!
Alex.